Bitcoin price loses momentum as traders shift their focus to TON, PEPE, KAS, and JASMY.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a notable decline this week, extending its losses by more than 3% and currently trading around $60,451. The selling pressure from bears has pushed the price below the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of $64,230.

Despite this dip, the bears have been unable to deepen the correction significantly, indicating that bulls are actively trying to defend this crucial support level. The STH-RP represents the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders with wallets storing Bitcoin for 155 days or less, making it a critical benchmark.

According to data from Farside Investors, Bitcoin's recent weakness has led to sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since June 13. This trend reflects growing nervousness among Bitcoin investors about the near-term outlook.

Insights from Analysts

Independent analyst Willy Woo recently shared insights on X, predicting that Bitcoin's recovery will likely commence after the "weak miners die" and the hashrate recovers. Woo pointed out that in previous cycles, such as in 2020, the hashrate recovered in 8 days, and in 2017, it took 24 days. He also mentioned that this year's post-halving miner capitulation is prolonged, possibly due to "ordinal inscriptions boosting profits."

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin's price dipped below the critical support level of $64,602 on June 21, yet the bears failed to capitalize on this breach, indicating waning selling pressure at lower levels.

Analysis of Daily Price Movements

To regain upward momentum, bullish traders must successfully propel Bitcoin's price above the moving averages. Achieving this could potentially drive the BTC/USDT pair towards $70,000 and subsequently to $72,000. However, formidable resistance is anticipated in the $72,000 to $73,777 range, where bears are likely to defend their positions strongly. Conversely, a failure to sustain above current levels or the moving averages would signal prevailing negative sentiment, prompting traders to potentially sell during market rallies. This scenario could heighten the risk of a more pronounced correction towards the $60,000 mark.

Analysis of Short-Term Price Action

Examining the 4-hour chart reveals ongoing efforts by bulls to stage a recovery, albeit encountering resistance around the 20-EMA. Should selling pressure persist and push prices lower, bears could aim to breach the $63,379 support level, potentially reigniting a downtrend targeting $60,000. Nevertheless, a promising divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) hints at a potential easing in selling pressure. Bulls stand to gain momentum if they manage to break decisively above the 50-simple moving average, paving the way for a potential rally towards $67,000 and beyond, potentially reaching $70,000.

Toncoin (TON) Demonstrates Strength

Toncoin (TON) has demonstrated resilience by maintaining its price above the 50-day SMA ($6.83), indicating robust buying interest at lower levels.

Potential for Further Gains in Toncoin

Bulls are currently attempting to push Toncoin's price above the significant overhead resistance at $7.67. Successfully achieving this could propel the TON/USDT pair to $8.29, where it may encounter substantial resistance. If bulls manage to surpass this barrier, the price could potentially advance towards the $10 mark. However, if the price reverses from its current level and falls below $6.60, it could complete a head-and-shoulders pattern, triggering a potential decline towards the pattern target of $4.91.

Short-term Dynamics

On the 4-hour chart, bears have repeatedly pulled the price below the uptrend line but have been unable to initiate a sustained downward move. This indicates that bulls are aggressively buying at lower levels. The resistance zone between $7.67 and $8.29 is expected to face strong selling pressure from bears. If bulls overcome this resistance, the price could potentially climb towards $10.

The initial support to monitor on the downside is the 20-EMA. A breach of this level could signal that the pair may oscillate between $6.60 and $7.67 for a period. Bears will likely gain the upper hand if the price breaks and closes below $6.77.

Pepe Price Analysis

Pepe (PEPE) has experienced a correction over the past few days. However, the recent bounce from $0.000010 indicates that bulls are attempting to initiate a rebound.

Daily Chart Insights

To confirm the start of a sustained recovery, buyers need to push the price above the downtrend line and the moving averages. If successful, the PEPE/USDT pair could climb to $0.000014 and subsequently to $0.000016. Conversely, if the price turns down from the downtrend line or the moving averages, it will suggest that bears continue to sell during rallies. A break below $0.000010 could open the door for a decline to $0.000008.

Short-Term Chart Dynamics

On the 4-hour chart, the 20-EMA has leveled out, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If buyers manage to push the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $0.000014, which might act as a minor resistance. Clearing this level could extend the rally to $0.000016.

However, if the uptrend line breaks down, the advantage will shift in favor of the bears, potentially pulling the price towards the strong support zone between $0.000009 and $0.000010.

Kaspa (KAS) Shows Signs of Recovery

Kaspa (KAS) demonstrated resilience by rebounding from the 50-day SMA ($0.14) on June 18, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels. The bulls further reinforced their position by pushing the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on June 23.

Daily Chart Insights

If buyers sustain this momentum and drive the price above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction phase might be over. The KAS/USDT pair could then rally towards the significant overhead resistance at $0.19.

The critical support level to monitor on the downside remains the 50-day SMA. A break and close below this level could signal the onset of a sharper correction down to $0.10, where bulls are likely to attempt to halt the decline.

Short-Term Chart Dynamics

On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages are nearing a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that bulls are making a comeback. A decisive break and close above $0.16 could pave the way for a rally towards $0.18.

Conversely, if the price falls below the moving averages, bears may attempt to push the pair below the $0.14 support. Should this level hold, the pair might consolidate between $0.14 and $0.16 for some time. If the $0.14 support level fails, the pair could potentially drop to $0.13.

JasmyCoin Price Analysis

JasmyCoin (JASMY) showed signs of strength by rebounding from the 50-day SMA ($0.03) on June 21, indicating increased buying interest at lower levels.

Daily Chart Insights

The 20-day EMA ($0.03) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure. If buyers can overcome the resistance at the 20-day EMA, the JASMY/USDT pair could rally to $0.04.

On the other hand, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears have not yet retreated and continue to sell on rallies. This scenario could lead the pair to oscillate between the moving averages. A break and close below the 50-day SMA could trigger a deeper decline towards $0.02.

Short-Term Chart Dynamics

The 4-hour chart reveals that bulls are attempting to initiate a relief rally, currently facing resistance between the 50-SMA and the downtrend line. The crucial support level to watch is the 20-EMA. If the price rebounds from the 20-EMA, it will improve the chances of breaking above the downtrend line, potentially pushing the pair to $0.04.

Conversely, if the price drops below the 20-EMA, it would suggest that bears are maintaining their pressure. This could lead to intensified selling and a possible decline below the channel, causing the pair to plunge to $0.02.

Bottom Line

As Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure and struggles to maintain key support levels, altcoins like TON, PEPE, KAS, and JASMY are capturing traders' attention with their potential for recovery and gains. Monitoring critical support and resistance levels, along with technical indicators, will be essential for making informed trading decisions in this dynamic market environment.